Sunrisers HyderabadversusRajasthan Royals

23 Mar 2025 · T20

Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Hyderabad won by 44 runs

Sunrisers Hyderabad20.0 overs286/6 Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs242/6 Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Hyderabad started on 48%; Sunrisers Hyderabad batted first.

Sunrisers Hyderabad’s chance of winning (%) · Rajasthan Royals is the rest

Sunrisers Hyderabad's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Rajasthan Royals: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

1.5: M Theekshana to TM Head, six by TM Head. Sunrisers Hyderabad up from 59% to 65%.
2.6: Fazalhaq Farooqi to TM Head, six by TM Head. Sunrisers Hyderabad up from 71% to 75%.
3.1: M Theekshana to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. Rajasthan Royals up from 25% to 34%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.