NepalversusMaldives

13 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 214 runs

Nepal20.0 overs227/4 Maldives13.5 overs13/10 YSD-UKM Cricket Oval, Bangi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

89%Nepal11%Maldives

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Maldives (1,532 vs 1,247 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 2 and Maldives won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 88%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Maldives is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 89% to 100% during the match (Maldives: 0% to 11%).

Biggest swings

1.5: Aishath Meesa Rameez to K Kunwar, 1 run to K Kunwar. Nepal up from 94% to 96%.
4.6: Shamma Ali to SR Magar, SR Magar out. Maldives up from 6% to 7%.
6.2: Nabaa Naseem to D Bhatta, D Bhatta out. Maldives up from 5% to 7%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal227/4 Maldives13/10

Innings 2

Maldives

13/1013.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Maldives batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Leen Luthufeelbw · Puja Mahato 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Puja Mahato	0	10	0	0	0.00
Nabaa Naseemcaught · Roma Thapa · Rubina Chhetri 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Roma Thapa · b Rubina Chhetri	2	22	0	0	9.09
Fathimath Malhabowled · Puja Mahato 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Puja Mahato	0	2	0	0	0.00
Maaha Naseerbowled · Puja Mahato 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Puja Mahato	0	5	0	0	0.00
Latsha Haleemathcaught · Dolly Bhatta · Asmina Karmacharya 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dolly Bhatta · b Asmina Karmacharya	1	4	0	0	25.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Kunwar1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	2	0	0.67	2
Puja Mahato1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	2	3	0.67	0
Asmina Karmacharya2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	7	4	1.75	0
Rubina Chhetri2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	2	2	3	0.52	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	1	1/1
3	1	2/1
4	0	2/2
5	1	3/2
6	1	4/3
7	6	10/4
8	0	10/5
9	0	10/6
10	0	10/7
11	0	10/8
12	1	11/8
13	1	12/9
14	1	13/10

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