CanterburyversusOtago

3 Jan 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Canterbury won by 76 runs

Canterbury20.0 overs145/7 Otago14.4 overs69/10 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canterbury started on 47%; Canterbury batted first.

Canterbury’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Canterbury's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.3: LMM Tahuhu to IR James, IR James out. Canterbury up from 59% to 70%.
2nd inns 1.6: Fatima Sana to ON Gain, ON Gain out. Canterbury up from 65% to 76%.
2nd inns 6.3: S Molineux to FC Leydon-Davis, FC Leydon-Davis out. Canterbury up from 64% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Canterbury chose to bat
Player of the match: Lea Tahuhu
match referees: SB O'Connor
reserve umpires: JT Blunt
tv umpires: C Black
umpires: PJ Pasco, SB Haig

Match history & source

On 3 Jan 2024, Canterbury played Otago at Molyneux Park, Alexandra. Recorded result: Canterbury won by 76 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.