Seattle OrcasversusWashington Freedom

4 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 8 wickets

Seattle Orcas17.4 overs82/10 Washington Freedom9.2 overs86/2 Central Broward Regional Park Stadium Turf Ground, Lauderhill ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Seattle Orcas started on 37%; Seattle Orcas batted first.

Seattle Orcas’s chance of winning (%) · Washington Freedom is the rest

Seattle Orcas's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (Washington Freedom: 62% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: SN Netravalkar to Shayan Jahangir, Shayan Jahangir out. Washington Freedom up from 62% to 76%.
1.2: GJ Maxwell to Aaron Jones, Aaron Jones out. Washington Freedom up from 71% to 81%.
3.1: GJ Maxwell to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Washington Freedom up from 85% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.