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Photo: Will Noakes
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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India tour of England · 2026 · Men
14 Jul 2026 · ODI
Edgbaston · Venue photographIndia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 31%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Jasprit Bumrah · Gurnoor Brar6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jasprit Bumrah · b Gurnoor Brar | 43 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 95.56 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Washington Sundar · Gurnoor Brar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Washington Sundar · b Gurnoor Brar | 14 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 45.16 |
 Joe Rootnot out6 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 76* | 76 | 6 | 1 | 100.00 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Rohit Sharma · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Jasprit Bumrah | 1 | 3 | 0 |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (India: 49% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Gurnoor Brar · Prasidh Krishna0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gurnoor Brar · b Prasidh Krishna | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
|---|
 Sam Currancaught · KL Rahul · Prasidh Krishna0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Prasidh Krishna | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · KL Rahul · Shivam Dube3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Shivam Dube | 20 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 105.26 |
|---|
| Liam Dawsoncaught · Rohit Sharma · Axar Patel 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Axar Patel | 68 | 83 | 6 | 1 | 81.93 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Washington Sundar · Axar Patel1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Washington Sundar · b Axar Patel | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidstumped · KL Rahul · Axar Patel0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · KL Rahul · b Axar Patel | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguebowled · Axar Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 12 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 3.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Gurnoor Brar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 61 | 2 | 6.78 | 3 | 0 |
 Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 62 | 4 | 6.31 | 0 | 0 |
1-61 (Jacob Bethell, 12.2) · 2-63 (Ben Duckett, 12.4) · 3-64 (Harry Brook, 13.1) · 4-80 (Jos Buttler, 16.1) · 5-80 (Sam Curran, 16.4) · 6-107 (Will Jacks, 21.4) · 7-228 (Liam Dawson, 44.0) · 8-250 (Jofra Archer, 46.0) · 9-258 (Adil Rashid, 47.3) · 10-258 (Josh Tongue, 47.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 20/0 |
| 8 | 17 | 37/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 42/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 51/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 58/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 69/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 74/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 80/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 80/5 |
| 18 | 2 | 82/5 |
| 19 | 7 | 89/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 93/5 |
| 21 | 11 | 104/5 |
| 22 | 4 | 108/6 |
| 23 | 2 | 110/6 |
| 24 | 3 | 113/6 |
| 25 | 4 | 117/6 |
| 26 | 5 | 122/6 |
| 27 | 6 | 128/6 |
| 28 | 6 | 134/6 |
| 29 | 5 | 139/6 |
| 30 | 4 | 143/6 |
| 31 | 7 | 150/6 |
| 32 | 10 | 160/6 |
| 33 | 2 | 162/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 166/6 |
| 35 | 5 | 171/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 177/6 |
| 37 | 9 | 186/6 |
| 38 | 4 | 190/6 |
| 39 | 6 | 196/6 |
| 40 | 7 | 203/6 |
| 41 | 7 | 210/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 214/6 |
| 43 | 9 | 223/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 228/7 |
| 45 | 7 | 235/7 |
| 46 | 15 | 250/8 |
| 47 | 7 | 257/8 |
| 48 | 1 | 258/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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