Sri LankaversusWest Indies

28 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

West Indies won by 6 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs141/7 West Indies19.5 overs142/4 Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, Sooriyawewa, Hambantota ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

59%Sri Lanka41%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than West Indies (1,668 vs 1,567 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 2% to 71% during the match (West Indies: 29% to 98%).

Biggest swings

0.2: CA Henry to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. West Indies up from 42% to 53%.
2nd inns 7.6: WK Dilhari to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Sri Lanka up from 31% to 40%.
2nd inns 19.5: K Kavindi to CA Henry, 1 run to CA Henry. West Indies up from 91% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka141/7 West Indies142/4

Innings 2

West Indies

142/419.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Stafanie Taylorlbw · Kavisha Dilhari 4 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Kavisha Dilhari	33	30	4	1	110.00
Hayley Matthewslbw · Kawya Kavindi 5 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kawya Kavindi	49	40	5	0	122.50
Shemaine Campbellenot out 3 fours · 2 sixes	not out	41*	30	3	2	136.67
Chedean Nationcaught · Harshitha Madavi · Kawya Kavindi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Kawya Kavindi	9	8	0	0	112.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Kawya Kavindi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	27	2	7.04	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0
Ama Kanchana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	1	5.50	1
Sachini Nisansala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	0
Shashini Gimhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	11	16/0
3	4	20/0
4	7	27/0
5	14	41/0
6	6	47/0
7	8	55/0
8	5	60/1
9	10	70/1
10	5	75/1
11	7	82/1
12	10	92/1
13	3	95/1
14	5	100/1
15	11	111/1
16	4	115/2
17	12	127/2
18	6	133/3
19	3	136/4
20	6	142/4

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