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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
20 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 84%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 80% to 100% during the match (Zambia: 0% to 20%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shadreck Malamacaught · CN Kakuru · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CN Kakuru · b Juma Miyagi | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| R Lungubowled · J Baguma 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b J Baguma | 14 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 93.33 |
| JV Chandcaught · E Kasaija · J Baguma 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · E Kasaija · b J Baguma | 38 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 135.71 |
| Ismail Karabowled · J Baguma 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b J Baguma | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jakir Patelbowled · AR Ramjani 0 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b AR Ramjani | 23 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 100.00 |
| Zakir Husain Patelcaught · E Kasaija · J Baguma0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · E Kasaija · b J Baguma |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Ayaz Dadabhaibowled · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Juma Miyagi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Zahirbhai Patelcaught · CN Kakuru · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CN Kakuru · b Juma Miyagi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Javid Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Joshep Zulucaught · Robinson Obuya · AR Ramjani 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Robinson Obuya · b AR Ramjani | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Soyeb Pendicaught · Olipa Gerald · E Kasaija 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Olipa Gerald · b E Kasaija | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 5.67 | 7 | 0 |
| E Kasaija0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.57 | 1 | 0 |
| J Baguma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 4 | 11.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Riazat Ali Shah0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
| AR Ramjani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Waiswa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Shadreck Malama, 0.5) · 2-30 (R Lungu, 4.3) · 3-30 (Ismail Kara, 4.4) · 4-71 (Jakir Patel, 10.4) · 5-87 (Zakir Husain Patel, 12.0) · 6-88 (Ayaz Dadabhai, 12.3) · 7-88 (Zahirbhai Patel, 12.5) · 8-91 (JV Chand, 13.4) · 9-106 (Joshep Zulu, 16.3) · 10-108 (Soyeb Pendi, 17.3)
Recorded target: 196 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 36/3 |
| 6 | 7 | 43/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 57/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 70/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 72/4 |
| 12 | 15 | 87/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 89/7 |
| 14 | 6 | 95/8 |
| 15 | 7 | 102/8 |
| 16 | 3 | 105/8 |
| 17 | 1 | 106/9 |
| 18 | 2 | 108/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.