Royal Challengers BengaluruversusPunjab Kings

3 Jun 2025 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 6 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs190/9 Punjab Kings20.0 overs184/7 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 51%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Punjab Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Punjab Kings: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.6: JR Hazlewood to Priyansh Arya, Priyansh Arya out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 36% to 50%.
2nd inns 12.1: KH Pandya to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 62% to 76%.
2nd inns 16.2: B Kumar to N Wadhera, N Wadhera out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 71% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru190/9 Punjab Kings184/7

Innings 1