IndiaversusOman

19 Sept 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 21 runs

India20.0 overs188/8 Oman20.0 overs167/4 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

90%India10%Oman

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Oman (1,772 vs 1,407 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 89%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

India's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 27%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.2: Kuldeep Yadav to Hammad Mirza, six by Hammad Mirza. Oman up from 19% to 27%.
2nd inns 17.3: Harshit Rana to Aamir Kaleem, 0 runs to Aamir Kaleem. India up from 76% to 82%.
2nd inns 17.4: Harshit Rana to Aamir Kaleem, Aamir Kaleem out. India up from 82% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India188/8 Oman167/4

Innings 1

India

188/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Vinayak Shukla · Jiten Ramanandi 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Jiten Ramanandi	38	15	5	2	253.33
Shubman Gillbowled · Shah Faisal 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shah Faisal	5	8	1	0	62.50
Sanju Samsoncaught · AR Bisht · Shah Faisal 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · AR Bisht · b Shah Faisal	56	45	3	3	124.44
Hardik Pandyarun out · Jiten Ramanandi · Jiten Ramanandi 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Jiten Ramanandi	1	1

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	33	0	11.00	1
Shah Faisal1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	23	2	5.75	0
Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	19	0	19.00	3
Jiten Ramanandi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	33	2	8.25	1
Samay Shrivastava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	23	0	11.50	2
Zikria Islam0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	23	0	7.67	3
Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	31	2	10.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	0	6/1
3	16	22/1
4	8	30/1
5	19	49/1
6	11	60/1
7	12	72/1
8	3	75/3
9	11	86/3
10	14	100/3
11	12	112/3
12	13	125/4
13	4	129/4
14	5	134/5
15	6	140/5
16	13	153/5
17	14	167/5
18	6	173/6
19	6	179/8
20	9	188/8

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