IndiaversusOman

19 Sept 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 21 runs

India20.0 overs188/8 Oman20.0 overs167/4 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

90%India10%Oman

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Oman (1,772 vs 1,407 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 89%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

India's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 27%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.2: Kuldeep Yadav to Hammad Mirza, six by Hammad Mirza. Oman up from 19% to 27%.
2nd inns 17.3: Harshit Rana to Aamir Kaleem, 0 runs to Aamir Kaleem. India up from 76% to 82%.
2nd inns 17.4: Harshit Rana to Aamir Kaleem, Aamir Kaleem out. India up from 82% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India188/8 Oman167/4

Innings 2

Oman

167/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jatinder Singhbowled · Kuldeep Yadav 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kuldeep Yadav	32	33	5	0	96.97
Aamir Kaleemcaught · Hardik Pandya · Harshit Rana 7 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Hardik Pandya · b Harshit Rana	64	46	7	2	139.13
Hammad Mirzacaught · RK Singh · Hardik Pandya 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · RK Singh · b Hardik Pandya	51	33	5	2	154.55
Zikria Islamnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	0*	2	0	0	0.00
Vinayak Shuklacaught · RK Singh · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · RK Singh · b Arshdeep Singh	1	2	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	2	0
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	1	0
Harshit Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	1	0
Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	0	1
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	4	0	4.00	0	0
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	0	10.33	1	0
Tilak Varma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0	0
Abhishek Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	9	17/0
3	4	21/0
4	6	27/0
5	6	33/0
6	11	44/0
7	7	51/0
8	4	55/0
9	2	57/1
10	5	62/1
11	8	70/1
12	10	80/1
13	12	92/1
14	8	100/1
15	16	116/1
16	15	131/1
17	10	141/1
18	8	149/2
19	6	155/3
20	12	167/4

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