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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
7 Oct 2025 · ODI
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 21%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontlbw · Marufa Akter2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Marufa Akter | 13 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 76.47 |
 Amy Joneslbw · Marufa Akter0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Marufa Akter | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 Heather Knightnot out8 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 79* | 111 | 8 | 1 | 71.17 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Fargana Hoque · Fahima Khatun5 fours · 0 sixes | caught |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (England: 67% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 32 |
| 41 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 78.05 |
 Sophia Dunkleylbw · Fahima Khatun0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Fahima Khatun | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Emma Lambcaught · Nahida Akter · Fahima Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nahida Akter · b Fahima Khatun | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
 Alice Capseylbw · Sanjida Akter Meghla3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sanjida Akter Meghla | 20 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 58.82 |
|---|
 Charlie Deannot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 27* | 56 | 2 | 0 | 48.21 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 5.60 | 7 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sanjida Akter Meghla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 3.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 5.57 | 0 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 1.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 4.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 24.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Amy Jones, 1.0) · 2-29 (Tammy Beaumont, 6.1) · 3-69 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 18.2) · 4-69 (Sophia Dunkley, 18.5) · 5-78 (Emma Lamb, 22.1) · 6-103 (Alice Capsey, 29.3)
Recorded target: 179 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 26/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 30/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 12 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 11 | 10 | 55/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 62/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 64/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 64/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 66/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 67/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 69/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 70/4 |
| 20 | 0 | 70/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 72/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 78/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 83/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 86/5 |
| 25 | 5 | 91/5 |
| 26 | 1 | 92/5 |
| 27 | 6 | 98/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 100/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 102/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 105/6 |
| 31 | 7 | 112/6 |
| 32 | 5 | 117/6 |
| 33 | 6 | 123/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 124/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 130/6 |
| 36 | 7 | 137/6 |
| 37 | 3 | 140/6 |
| 38 | 3 | 143/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 147/6 |
| 40 | 0 | 147/6 |
| 41 | 6 | 153/6 |
| 42 | 2 | 155/6 |
| 43 | 8 | 163/6 |
| 44 | 0 | 163/6 |
| 45 | 10 | 173/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 178/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 182/6 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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