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Photo: Ullaelinakarna
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
15 Aug 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 28%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 6% to 51% during the match (Portugal: 49% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Norotamcaught · Harmanjot Singh · Sajid Liaqat 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harmanjot Singh · b Sajid Liaqat | 23 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 191.67 |
| Christopher De Freitascaught · Musadiq Ahmed · Joshua van Heerden 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Musadiq Ahmed · b Joshua van Heerden | 65 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 141.30 |
| Cameron Shekletoncaught · B Kohler-Cadmore · Ahmad Ullah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Kohler-Cadmore · b Ahmad Ullah | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
 Moisés Henriquescaught · Joshua van Heerden · Muslim Yar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua van Heerden · b Muslim Yar | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| C Nunesnot out4 fours · 0 sixes |
| not out |
| 31* |
| 28 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 110.71 |
| J Martinscaught · Ahmad Ullah · V Jatinder Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ahmad Ullah · b V Jatinder Kumar | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Sebastian de Oliveiracaught · Joshua van Heerden · Shahid Afridi (2) 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Joshua van Heerden · b Shahid Afridi (2) | 15 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 136.36 |
|---|
| Edward Flemingnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Jatinder Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua van Heerden0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 6.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Sajid Liaqat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Muslim Yar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Ullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Shahid Afridi (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-41 (D Norotam, 3.5) · 2-52 (Cameron Shekleton, 6.5) · 3-61 (Moisés Henriques, 8.0) · 4-102 (Christopher De Freitas, 15.2) · 5-109 (J Martins, 16.3) · 6-135 (Sebastian de Oliveira, 19.0)
Recorded target: 141 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 17 | 36/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 47/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 49/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 52/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 61/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 66/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 73/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 12 | 9 | 84/3 |
| 13 | 10 | 94/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 97/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 101/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 110/5 |
| 18 | 15 | 125/5 |
| 19 | 10 | 135/6 |
| 20 | 6 | 141/6 |
Moisés Henriques: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
