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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
19 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Jersey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 32%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Jersey: 50% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noman Amjadcaught · Julius Sumerauer · Dominic Blampied 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Julius Sumerauer · b Dominic Blampied | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Nasibullah Arabcaught · Dominic Blampied · Julius Sumerauer 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dominic Blampied · b Julius Sumerauer | 33 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 275.00 |
| G Mckeoncaught · Dominic Blampied · Zak Tribe 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dominic Blampied · b Zak Tribe | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 111.76 |
| C Robertscaught · Julius Sumerauer · Charles Perchard 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Julius Sumerauer · b Charles Perchard | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Zada Sherlbw · Charles Perchard 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charles Perchard | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Mohammad Khan Rafahcaught · Benjamin Ward · Dominic Blampied 3 fours · 4 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Benjamin Ward · b Dominic Blampied |
| 47 |
| 26 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 180.77 |
| Rahimgul Nasericaught · Nick Greenwood · Benjamin Ward 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nick Greenwood · b Benjamin Ward | 17 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 80.95 |
|---|
| Kamran Ahmadzaicaught · Julius Sumerauer · Benjamin Ward 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Julius Sumerauer · b Benjamin Ward | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Usman Khannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Abdurrahman Ahmadzaicaught · Nick Greenwood · Julius Sumerauer 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Nick Greenwood · b Julius Sumerauer | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 280.00 |
|---|
| Dawood Ahmadzaicaught · Charlie Brennan · Zak Tribe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Brennan · b Zak Tribe | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Birrell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Charles Perchard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Blampied0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Sumerauer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 12.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Benjamin Ward0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Greenwood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zak Tribe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Noman Amjad, 2.4) · 2-41 (Nasibullah Arab, 3.5) · 3-55 (C Roberts, 5.5) · 4-59 (Zada Sher, 7.4) · 5-73 (G Mckeon, 10.1) · 6-114 (Mohammad Khan Rafah, 14.0) · 7-115 (Kamran Ahmadzai, 14.5) · 8-126 (Rahimgul Naseri, 16.5) · 9-141 (Abdurrahman Ahmadzai, 18.0) · 10-145 (Dawood Ahmadzai, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 24/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 4 | 13 | 42/2 |
| 5 | 11 | 53/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 55/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 57/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 60/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 62/4 |
| 10 | 11 | 73/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 75/5 |
| 12 | 12 | 87/5 |
| 13 | 16 | 103/5 |
| 14 | 11 | 114/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 115/7 |
| 16 | 7 | 122/7 |
| 17 | 5 | 127/8 |
| 18 | 14 | 141/9 |
| 19 | 4 | 145/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 145/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.