IndiaversusAustralia

24 Jun 2024 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 24 runs

India20.0 overs205/5 Australia20.0 overs181/7 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%India50%Australia

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Australia won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than India (1,753 vs 1,705 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 47%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

India's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 67%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.6: Kuldeep Yadav to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. India up from 56% to 68%.
2nd inns 13.1: Kuldeep Yadav to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. India up from 49% to 62%.
2nd inns 14.1: AR Patel to MP Stoinis, MP Stoinis out. India up from 60% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India205/5 Australia181/7

Innings 1

India

205/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Rohit Sharmabowled · Mitchell Starc 7 fours · 8 sixes	bowled · b Mitchell Starc	92	41	7	8	224.39
Virat Kohlicaught · Tim David · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tim David · b Josh Hazlewood	0	5	0	0	0.00
Rishabh Pantcaught · Josh Hazlewood · Marcus Stoinis 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Josh Hazlewood · b Marcus Stoinis	15	14	1	1	107.14
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Matthew Wade · Mitchell Starc3 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	2	11.25	1
Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	1	3.50	0
Pat Cummins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	48	0	12.00	0
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	0	10.25	0
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	56	2	14.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	1	6/1
3	29	35/1
4	2	37/1
5	15	52/1
6	8	60/1
7	16	76/1
8	17	93/2
9	9	102/2
10	12	114/2
11	13	127/2
12	4	131/3
13	11	142/3
14	13	155/3
15	7	162/4
16	4	166/4
17	5	171/4
18	10	181/4
19	14	195/5
20	10	205/5

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