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Africa Continental Cup · 2024/25 · Men
7 Dec 2024 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 92%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 87% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 13%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Obuyabowled · Muhammad Nadir 6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Nadir | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 106.25 |
| Simon Ssesazicaught · D Ndikubwimana · M Akayezu 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Ndikubwimana · b M Akayezu | 19 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 146.15 |
| Raghav Dhawancaught · E Kubwimana · M Akayezu 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · E Kubwimana · b M Akayezu | 15 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 78.95 |
| Riazat Ali Shahcaught · RJ Pierre · I Ntirenganya 2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · RJ Pierre · b I Ntirenganya | 44 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 133.33 |
| Dinesh Nakranicaught · E Rukiriza · E Kubwimana 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · E Rukiriza · b E Kubwimana | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 220.00 |
| not out |
| 12* |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 171.43 |
| Juma Miyagibowled · E Kubwimana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b E Kubwimana | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| P Murungicaught · D Ndikubwimana · I Ntirenganya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Ndikubwimana · b I Ntirenganya | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Fred Achelamcaught · Muhammad Nadir · I Ntirenganya 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Muhammad Nadir · b I Ntirenganya | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| J Bagumanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Kubwimana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| I Ntirenganya0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 7.75 | 2 | 0 |
| M Akayezu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Nadir1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| E Rukiriza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| RJ Pierre0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-55 (Simon Ssesazi, 7.0) · 2-55 (Robinson Obuya, 7.3) · 3-101 (Raghav Dhawan, 15.0) · 4-123 (Dinesh Nakrani, 16.3) · 5-129 (Riazat Ali Shah, 17.3) · 6-137 (Juma Miyagi, 18.5) · 7-138 (P Murungi, 19.1) · 8-144 (Fred Achelam, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 19 | 55/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 55/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 62/2 |
| 11 | 17 | 79/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 86/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 92/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 96/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 101/3 |
| 16 | 12 | 113/3 |
| 17 | 13 | 126/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 132/5 |
| 19 | 6 | 138/6 |
| 20 | 13 | 151/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.