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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
9 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Papua New Guinea more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 83%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 87% during the match (Samoa: 13% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Vissercaught · Damien Ravu · Alei Nao 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Damien Ravu · b Alei Nao | 14 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 82.35 |
| Sean Soliabowled · Assad Vala 4 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Assad Vala | 62 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 137.78 |
| BF Mailatalbw · John Kariko 0 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b John Kariko | 19 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 100.00 |
 Ross Taylorretired hurt · Damien Ravu0 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| SF Tiaicaught · Hila Vare · Damien Ravu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hila Vare · b Damien Ravu | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| CK Jasmatnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.75 |
|---|
| F Suluotonot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 5 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kabua Morea0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Damien Ravu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sese Bau0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.86 | 0 | 0 |
| Alei Nao0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 8.67 | 1 | 0 |
| John Kariko1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Lega Siaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Assad Vala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 13.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-33 (Darius Visser, 4.4) · 2-75 (BF Mailata, 10.3) · 3-82 (SF Tiai, 13.2) · 4-109 (Sean Solia, 17.2)
Recorded target: 118 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 46/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 50/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 60/1 |
| 10 | 15 | 75/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 75/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 78/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 81/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 86/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 87/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 98/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 103/3 |
| 18 | 12 | 115/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 118/4 |
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Ross Taylor: New Zealand Government, Office of the Governor-General · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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