NamibiaversusZimbabwe

14 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 24 runs

Namibia20.0 overs127/5 Zimbabwe19.4 overs103/10 Wanderers Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Namibia48%Zimbabwe

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 7 and Namibia won 3
Namibia are playing at home in Namibia
On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,476 vs 1,451 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 47%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.1: W Mwatile to B Biza, M Mupachikwa out. Namibia up from 58% to 69%.
2nd inns 9.4: M Mwatile to R Pasipanodya, R Pasipanodya out. Namibia up from 63% to 76%.
2nd inns 13.3: N Benjamin to CS Mugeri-Tiripano, CS Mugeri-Tiripano out. Namibia up from 61% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia127/5 Zimbabwe103/10

Innings 2

Zimbabwe

103/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kelis Ndhlovubowled · S Tuhadeleni 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b S Tuhadeleni	4	6	1	0	66.67
B Bizacaught and bowled · M Mwatile 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b M Mwatile	11	25	1	0	44.00
Modester Mupachikwarun out · M Gorases, M Mwatile · Wilka Mwatile 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · M Gorases, M Mwatile	14	10	2	0	140.00
Chipo Mugericaught · Wilka Mwatile · N Benjamin 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wilka Mwatile · b N Benjamin	27	26	3	0	103.85
R Pasipanodyabowled · M Mwatile 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b M Mwatile	10	8	1	1	125.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
S Tuhadeleni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	1	5.75	0	0
N Benjamin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	17	1	4.43	1	0
Wilka Mwatile1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.5	1	4	2	1.04	1	1
M Mwatile0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	32	3	8.00	0	0
Arrasta Diergaardt0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	0	5.25	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	3	7/1
3	7	14/1
4	4	18/1
5	6	24/1
6	8	32/1
7	2	34/2
8	5	39/3
9	2	41/3
10	15	56/4
11	2	58/4
12	8	66/4
13	9	75/4
14	4	79/5
15	2	81/6
16	6	87/7
17	6	93/7
18	0	93/8
19	10	103/8
20	0	103/10

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