NorthamptonshireversusGlamorgan

8 Jul 2026 · T20

Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 53 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs217/7 Glamorgan18.3 overs164/10 Sophia Gardens, Cardiff ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 53%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Glamorgan is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Glamorgan: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

5.3: N McAndrew to R Vasconcelos, R Vasconcelos out. Glamorgan up from 23% to 31%.
2nd inns 2.6: SA Zaib to KS Carlson, WT Smale out. Northamptonshire up from 71% to 81%.
2nd inns 6.4: CG Harrison to KS Carlson, KS Carlson out. Northamptonshire up from 77% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire217/7 Glamorgan164/10

Innings 1