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Scotland tour of United Arab Emirates · 2023/24 · Men
13 Mar 2024 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 41%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 12% to 97% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 3% to 88%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waseem Muhammadlbw · Brad Currie 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Currie | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| T Suricaught · Brandon McMullen · Gavin Main 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Gavin Main | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Aryan Lakracaught · George Munsey · Jack Jarvis 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Jack Jarvis | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
 Alishan Sharafucaught · George Munsey · Michael Leask4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Michael Leask | 35 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 109.38 |
| Rahul Choprabowled · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| 2 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 18.18 |
| Basil Hameedcaught and bowled · James Dickinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b James Dickinson | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
| Aayan Afzal Khancaught · Matty Cross · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Jack Jarvis | 16 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
| Zuhaib Zubairrun out · Matty Cross, Jack Jarvis · Brad Currie 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Matty Cross, Jack Jarvis | 13 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Hazrat Luqmanrun out · Matty Cross, Michael Leask · Gavin Main 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Matty Cross, Michael Leask | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Akif Rajanot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 12* | 7 | 1 | 1 | 171.43 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Gavin Main0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Hamza Tahir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| James Dickinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (T Suri, 2.0) · 2-11 (Waseem Muhammad, 2.5) · 3-19 (Aryan Lakra, 3.2) · 4-24 (Rahul Chopra, 5.5) · 5-36 (Basil Hameed, 9.0) · 6-71 (Alishan Sharafu, 14.4) · 7-90 (Zuhaib Zubair, 17.2) · 8-98 (Aayan Afzal Khan, 18.3) · 9-111 (Hazrat Luqman, 19.2)
Recorded target: 122 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 12 | 15/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 21/3 |
| 5 | 3 | 24/3 |
| 6 | 1 | 25/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 29/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 32/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 36/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 39/5 |
| 11 | 7 | 46/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 55/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 60/5 |
| 14 | 8 | 68/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 77/6 |
| 16 | 5 | 82/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 89/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 95/7 |
| 19 | 14 | 109/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 112/9 |
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
