IndiaversusBangladesh

12 Oct 2024 · T20

Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 133 runs

India20.0 overs297/6 Bangladesh20.0 overs164/7 Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

92%India8%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,825 vs 1,558 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 91%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 91% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 9%).

Biggest swings

2.1: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. Bangladesh up from 5% to 8%.
2.4: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to SA Yadav, six by SA Yadav. India up from 92% to 93%.
3.4: Mustafizur Rahman to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. India up from 94% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India297/6 Bangladesh164/7

Innings 1

India

297/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsoncaught · Mahedi Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman 11 fours · 8 sixes	caught · Mahedi Hasan · b Mustafizur Rahman	111	47	11	8	236.17
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Mahedi Hasan · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mahedi Hasan · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	4	4	1	0	100.00
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Rishad Hossain · Mahmudullah 8 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Rishad Hossain · b Mahmudullah	75	35	8	5	214.29
Riyan Paragcaught · Litton Das · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Taskin Ahmed	34	13	1	4	261.54

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	0	11.25	0	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls	4.0	51	1	12.75	0	3
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	66	3	16.50	1	0
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	52	1	13.00	1	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	46	0	23.00	0	0
Mahmudullah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	16	23/0
3	12	35/1
4	12	47/1
5	16	63/1
6	19	82/1
7	16	98/1
8	15	113/1
9	9	122/1
10	30	152/1
11	14	166/1
12	13	179/1
13	11	190/1
14	11	201/2
15	12	213/3
16	21	234/3
17	18	252/3
18	15	267/3
19	15	282/4
20	15	297/6

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