IndiaversusBangladesh

12 Oct 2024 · T20

Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 133 runs

India20.0 overs297/6 Bangladesh20.0 overs164/7 Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

92%India8%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,825 vs 1,558 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 91%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 91% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 9%).

Biggest swings

2.1: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. Bangladesh up from 5% to 8%.
2.4: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to SA Yadav, six by SA Yadav. India up from 92% to 93%.
3.4: Mustafizur Rahman to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. India up from 94% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India297/6 Bangladesh164/7

Innings 2

Bangladesh

164/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Riyan Parag · Mayank Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Riyan Parag · b Mayank Yadav	0	1	0	0	0.00
Tanzid Hasancaught · Varun Chakravarthy · Washington Sundar 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Varun Chakravarthy · b Washington Sundar	15	12	3	0	125.00
Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Sanju Samson · Ravi Bishnoi 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sanju Samson · b Ravi Bishnoi	14	11	1	1	127.27
Litton Dascaught · Tilak Varma · Ravi Bishnoi 8 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tilak Varma · b Ravi Bishnoi	42	25	8	0	168.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Mayank Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	32	2	8.00	1	1
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	32	0	10.67	3	0
Washington Sundar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	1	4.00	1	0
Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	31	1	10.33	0	0
Ravi Bishnoi1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	30	3	7.50	1	0
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	0	0
Abhishek Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	12	17/1
3	18	35/1
4	4	39/2
5	20	59/2
6	0	59/3
7	5	64/3
8	13	77/3
9	9	86/3
10	8	94/3
11	13	107/3
12	5	112/4
13	7	119/4
14	7	126/4
15	7	133/5
16	2	135/5
17	3	138/6
18	12	150/7
19	6	156/7
20	8	164/7

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