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Photo: Mnnngchris at English Wikipedia
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
10 Jul 2025 · T20
The County Ground, Derby · Venue photographRecorded result
Worcestershire started on 44%; Worcestershire batted first.
Worcestershire's chances ranged from 4% to 99% during the match (Derbyshire: 1% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 10 Jul 2025, Worcestershire played Derbyshire at The County Ground, Derby. Recorded result: Worcestershire won by 12 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.