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Photo: Birdy10
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
13 Aug 2024 · ODI
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 45%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Taylorcaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 27 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 56.25 |
| Smit Patelbowled · Pargat Singh 5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Pargat Singh | 63 | 83 | 5 | 1 | 75.90 |
| Monank Patelnot out 7 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 121* | 95 | 7 | 5 | 127.37 |
| Aaron Jonesstumped · Shreyas Movva · Harsh Thaker 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Shreyas Movva · b Harsh Thaker | 15 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Milind Kumarlbw · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saad Bin Zafar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
United States of America's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 57* |
| 47 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 121.28 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 0 | 7.20 | 6 | 1 |
| Jeremy Gordon0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 7.63 | 5 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Pargat Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Nicholas Kirton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dilpreet Bajwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-75 (Steven Taylor, 13.5) · 2-133 (Smit Patel, 26.4) · 3-160 (Aaron Jones, 33.0) · 4-161 (Milind Kumar, 33.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 32/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 41/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 45/0 |
| 10 | 13 | 58/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 64/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 67/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 71/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 75/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 79/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 82/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 85/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 88/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 91/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 93/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 96/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 99/1 |
| 23 | 15 | 114/1 |
| 24 | 3 | 117/1 |
| 25 | 8 | 125/1 |
| 26 | 5 | 130/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 133/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 137/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 141/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 144/2 |
| 31 | 6 | 150/2 |
| 32 | 3 | 153/2 |
| 33 | 7 | 160/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 162/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 164/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 171/4 |
| 37 | 9 | 180/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 184/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 192/4 |
| 40 | 10 | 202/4 |
| 41 | 9 | 211/4 |
| 42 | 13 | 224/4 |
| 43 | 13 | 237/4 |
| 44 | 11 | 248/4 |
| 45 | 12 | 260/4 |
| 46 | 8 | 268/4 |
| 47 | 7 | 275/4 |
| 48 | 6 | 281/4 |
| 49 | 13 | 294/4 |
| 50 | 10 | 304/4 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
