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Photo: Birdy10
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
13 Aug 2024 · ODI
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 45%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsoncaught · Shadley van Schalkwyk · Harmeet Singh 7 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Shadley van Schalkwyk · b Harmeet Singh | 55 | 41 | 7 | 4 | 134.15 |
| Aaditya Varadarajanlbw · Jasdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jasdeep Singh | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Pargat Singhlbw · Nosthush Kenjige 5 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Nosthush Kenjige | 42 | 51 | 5 | 1 | 82.35 |
| Dilpreet Bajwacaught · Aaron Jones · Nosthush Kenjige 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Jones · b Nosthush Kenjige | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Shayan Jahangir · Jasdeep Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Jasdeep Singh | 14 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 82.35 |
United States of America's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Harsh Thakercaught · Milind Kumar · Shadley van Schalkwyk 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 77 | 77 | 6 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Shreyas Movvacaught · Jasdeep Singh · Nosthush Kenjige 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jasdeep Singh · b Nosthush Kenjige | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Abhishek Paradkar · Steven Taylor1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abhishek Paradkar · b Steven Taylor | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Dillon Heyligercaught · Milind Kumar · Shadley van Schalkwyk 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 56 | 65 | 6 | 1 | 86.15 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sananot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 9 | 0 | 1 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Jeremy Gordonnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 2 | 0 | 1 | 350.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 79 | 2 | 8.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh2 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 52 | 2 | 5.20 | 4 | 0 |
| Abhishek Paradkar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 7.14 | 1 | 0 |
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 3.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 5.40 | 0 | 1 |
| Steven Taylor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-51 (Aaditya Varadarajan, 8.2) · 2-71 (Aaron Johnson, 12.3) · 3-90 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 16.0) · 4-126 (Nicholas Kirton, 22.1) · 5-128 (Pargat Singh, 24.0) · 6-130 (Shreyas Movva, 25.2) · 7-140 (Saad Bin Zafar, 27.1) · 8-265 (Dillon Heyliger, 47.1) · 9-282 (Harsh Thaker, 49.1)
Recorded target: 305 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 16 | 50/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 51/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 61/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 63/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 65/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 71/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 72/2 |
| 15 | 11 | 83/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 90/3 |
| 17 | 12 | 102/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 19 | 10 | 114/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 115/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 118/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 126/3 |
| 23 | 0 | 126/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 128/5 |
| 25 | 2 | 130/5 |
| 26 | 6 | 136/6 |
| 27 | 4 | 140/6 |
| 28 | 1 | 141/7 |
| 29 | 3 | 144/7 |
| 30 | 4 | 148/7 |
| 31 | 1 | 149/7 |
| 32 | 5 | 154/7 |
| 33 | 6 | 160/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 162/7 |
| 35 | 5 | 167/7 |
| 36 | 11 | 178/7 |
| 37 | 0 | 178/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 182/7 |
| 39 | 2 | 184/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 187/7 |
| 41 | 9 | 196/7 |
| 42 | 17 | 213/7 |
| 43 | 10 | 223/7 |
| 44 | 7 | 230/7 |
| 45 | 13 | 243/7 |
| 46 | 10 | 253/7 |
| 47 | 12 | 265/7 |
| 48 | 8 | 273/8 |
| 49 | 9 | 282/8 |
| 50 | 8 | 290/9 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
