Noakhali ExpressversusDhaka Capitals

11 Jan 2026 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Noakhali Express won by 41 runs

Noakhali Express20.0 overs184/7 Dhaka Capitals18.2 overs143/10 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Noakhali Express started on 46%; Noakhali Express batted first.

Noakhali Express’s chance of winning (%) · Dhaka Capitals is the rest

Noakhali Express's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (Dhaka Capitals: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.3: Hasan Mahmud to Rahmanullah Gurbaz, 0 runs to Rahmanullah Gurbaz. Dhaka Capitals up from 24% to 29%.
2nd inns 2.4: Hasan Mahmud to Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Rahmanullah Gurbaz out. Noakhali Express up from 71% to 80%.
2nd inns 3.1: Ihsanullah to Abdullah Al Mamun, Abdullah Al Mamun out. Noakhali Express up from 81% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Noakhali Express184/7 Dhaka Capitals143/10

Innings 1