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New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
17 Jun 2026 · Test
The Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Jacob Bethell · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Jofra Archer | 27 | 75 | 1 | 0 | 36.00 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · James Rew · Matthew Fisher 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · James Rew · b Matthew Fisher | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Henry Nichollsbowled · Josh Tongue 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 24 | 57 | 3 | 0 | 42.11 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Jacob Bethell · Sonny Baker6 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Jacob Bethell · b Sonny Baker |
| 33 |
| 51 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 64.71 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Emilio Gay · Sonny Baker 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Emilio Gay · b Sonny Baker | 44 | 74 | 6 | 0 | 59.46 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Joe Root · Jacob Bethell6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Jacob Bethell | 51 | 84 | 6 | 0 | 60.71 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Emilio Gay · Matthew Fisher 18 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Emilio Gay · b Matthew Fisher | 100 | 135 | 18 | 0 | 74.07 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Jordan Cox · Jacob Bethell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jordan Cox · b Jacob Bethell | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 19.05 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonbowled · Jacob Bethell7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Bethell | 41 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 85.42 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Josh Tongue · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Tongue · b Jofra Archer | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 26.32 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 22 · legbyes: 20 · wides: 8 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer4 maidens · 8 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 4 | 61 | 2 | 3.05 | 8 | 1 |
| Matthew Fisher6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.2 | 6 | 62 | 2 | 2.66 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Tongue1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 21.0 | 1 | 97 | 1 | 4.62 | 0 | 2 |
| Sonny Baker2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 2 | 94 | 2 | 4.95 | 0 | 0 |
 Harry Brook0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 2.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Devon Conway, 6.0) · 2-58 (Tom Latham, 20.5) · 3-79 (Henry Nicholls, 28.4) · 4-107 (Rachin Ravindra, 35.2) · 5-188 (Daryl Mitchell, 52.5) · 6-263 (Tom Blundell, 67.4) · 7-280 (Nathan Smith, 73.4) · 8-367 (Kyle Jamieson, 89.3) · 9-391 (Matt Henry, 95.4) · 10-391 (Glenn Phillips, 96.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 19/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 35/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 42/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 47/1 |
| 18 | 0 | 47/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 20 | 0 | 53/1 |
| 21 | 9 | 62/2 |
| 22 | 0 | 62/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 66/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 71/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 75/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 76/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 76/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 29 | 2 | 80/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 81/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 86/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 88/3 |
| 33 | 8 | 96/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 98/3 |
| 35 | 9 | 107/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 110/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 116/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 118/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 122/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 124/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 129/4 |
| 42 | 11 | 140/4 |
| 43 | 5 | 145/4 |
| 44 | 4 | 149/4 |
| 45 | 9 | 158/4 |
| 46 | 4 | 162/4 |
| 47 | 2 | 164/4 |
| 48 | 2 | 166/4 |
| 49 | 0 | 166/4 |
| 50 | 2 | 168/4 |
| 51 | 8 | 176/4 |
| 52 | 8 | 184/4 |
| 53 | 5 | 189/5 |
| 54 | 7 | 196/5 |
| 55 | 12 | 208/5 |
| 56 | 8 | 216/5 |
| 57 | 6 | 222/5 |
| 58 | 0 | 222/5 |
| 59 | 5 | 227/5 |
| 60 | 5 | 232/5 |
| 61 | 2 | 234/5 |
| 62 | 4 | 238/5 |
| 63 | 5 | 243/5 |
| 64 | 4 | 247/5 |
| 65 | 5 | 252/5 |
| 66 | 6 | 258/5 |
| 67 | 1 | 259/5 |
| 68 | 4 | 263/6 |
| 69 | 4 | 267/6 |
| 70 | 0 | 267/6 |
| 71 | 4 | 271/6 |
| 72 | 1 | 272/6 |
| 73 | 6 | 278/6 |
| 74 | 2 | 280/7 |
| 75 | 4 | 284/7 |
| 76 | 6 | 290/7 |
| 77 | 1 | 291/7 |
| 78 | 9 | 300/7 |
| 79 | 5 | 305/7 |
| 80 | 13 | 318/7 |
| 81 | 6 | 324/7 |
| 82 | 5 | 329/7 |
| 83 | 3 | 332/7 |
| 84 | 8 | 340/7 |
| 85 | 5 | 345/7 |
| 86 | 5 | 350/7 |
| 87 | 6 | 356/7 |
| 88 | 1 | 357/7 |
| 89 | 8 | 365/7 |
| 90 | 2 | 367/8 |
| 91 | 5 | 372/8 |
| 92 | 1 | 373/8 |
| 93 | 4 | 377/8 |
| 94 | 9 | 386/8 |
| 95 | 2 | 388/8 |
| 96 | 3 | 391/9 |
| 97 | 0 | 391/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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