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New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
17 Jun 2026 · Test
The Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettrun out · Nathan Smith · Kyle Jamieson5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nathan Smith | 36 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 144.00 |
| Emilio Gaycaught · Tom Blundell · William O’Rourke 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke | 53 | 114 | 9 | 0 | 46.49 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Tom Blundell · Nathan Smith 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Nathan Smith | 9 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 36.00 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Matt Henry8 fours · 0 sixes |
| 46 |
| 57 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 80.70 |
 Harry Brooklbw · Matt Henry2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Matt Henry | 24 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 75.00 |
|---|
| James Rewcaught · Daryl Mitchell · William O’Rourke 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b William O’Rourke | 24 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 47.06 |
|---|
| Jordan Coxcaught · Tom Latham · Matt Henry 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Matt Henry | 27 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 49.09 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Tom Blundell · Matt Henry2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Matt Henry | 8 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 34.78 |
|---|
| Matthew Fishernot out 6 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 50* | 77 | 6 | 0 | 64.94 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguecaught · Nathan Smith · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan Smith · b Matt Henry | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
| Sonny Bakercaught · Tom Latham · Kyle Jamieson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Kyle Jamieson | 4 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 3 | 80 | 5 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson6 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 6 | 78 | 1 | 3.90 | 0 | 1 |
 William O’Rourke2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 2 | 68 | 2 | 3.40 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Smith5 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 18.0 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 3.17 | 0 | 1 |
 Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-45 (Ben Duckett, 7.5) · 2-68 (Jacob Bethell, 16.4) · 3-142 (Emilio Gay, 33.5) · 4-170 (Joe Root, 40.5) · 5-177 (Harry Brook, 42.1) · 6-217 (James Rew, 55.5) · 7-235 (Jordan Cox, 62.1) · 8-236 (Jofra Archer, 64.4) · 9-238 (Josh Tongue, 67.0) · 10-291 (Sonny Baker, 84.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 37/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 45/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 45/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 52/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 58/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 58/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 58/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 64/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 64/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 64/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 68/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 74/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 79/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 83/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 88/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 93/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 95/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 100/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 105/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 109/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 116/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 118/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 119/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 123/2 |
| 30 | 13 | 136/2 |
| 31 | 0 | 136/2 |
| 32 | 2 | 138/2 |
| 33 | 0 | 138/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 143/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 145/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 156/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 158/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 162/3 |
| 39 | 2 | 164/3 |
| 40 | 5 | 169/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 170/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 177/4 |
| 43 | 0 | 177/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 182/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 186/5 |
| 46 | 0 | 186/5 |
| 47 | 5 | 191/5 |
| 48 | 8 | 199/5 |
| 49 | 5 | 204/5 |
| 50 | 1 | 205/5 |
| 51 | 3 | 208/5 |
| 52 | 6 | 214/5 |
| 53 | 0 | 214/5 |
| 54 | 2 | 216/5 |
| 55 | 0 | 216/5 |
| 56 | 1 | 217/6 |
| 57 | 1 | 218/6 |
| 58 | 3 | 221/6 |
| 59 | 1 | 222/6 |
| 60 | 1 | 223/6 |
| 61 | 4 | 227/6 |
| 62 | 8 | 235/6 |
| 63 | 1 | 236/7 |
| 64 | 0 | 236/7 |
| 65 | 1 | 237/8 |
| 66 | 0 | 237/8 |
| 67 | 1 | 238/9 |
| 68 | 3 | 241/9 |
| 69 | 5 | 246/9 |
| 70 | 3 | 249/9 |
| 71 | 1 | 250/9 |
| 72 | 5 | 255/9 |
| 73 | 1 | 256/9 |
| 74 | 2 | 258/9 |
| 75 | 4 | 262/9 |
| 76 | 1 | 263/9 |
| 77 | 1 | 264/9 |
| 78 | 7 | 271/9 |
| 79 | 1 | 272/9 |
| 80 | 9 | 281/9 |
| 81 | 6 | 287/9 |
| 82 | 0 | 287/9 |
| 83 | 4 | 291/9 |
| 84 | 0 | 291/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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