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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Ireland Women tour of Bangladesh · 2024/25 · Women
2 Dec 2024 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 32%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fargana Hoquecaught · Amy Hunter · Aimee Maguire6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b Aimee Maguire | 61 | 99 | 6 | 0 | 61.62 |
 Murshida Khatuncaught · Sarah Forbes · Orla Prendergast1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Forbes · b Orla Prendergast | 8 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Sharmin Akhtercaught · FA Sargent · Aimee Maguire11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · FA Sargent · b Aimee Maguire | 72 | 88 | 11 | 0 | 81.82 |
 Nigar Sultana |
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Bangladesh: 57% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 18* |
| 18 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Sobhana Mostarynot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 15 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 3.40 | 1 | 0 |
| FA Sargent0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 5.14 | 1 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 7.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Arlene Kelly1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.3 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Alana Dalzell0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 4.40 | 8 | 0 |
| Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Sarah Forbes0 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 4 |
1-9 (Murshida Khatun, 4.3) · 2-152 (Sharmin Akhter, 32.3) · 3-165 (Fargana Hoque, 34.2)
Recorded target: 186 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 32/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 48/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 54/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 60/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 62/1 |
| 15 | 9 | 71/1 |
| 16 | 0 | 71/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 77/1 |
| 19 | 8 | 85/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 88/1 |
| 21 | 7 | 95/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 98/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 100/1 |
| 24 | 3 | 103/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 105/1 |
| 26 | 10 | 115/1 |
| 27 | 2 | 117/1 |
| 28 | 4 | 121/1 |
| 29 | 1 | 122/1 |
| 30 | 10 | 132/1 |
| 31 | 8 | 140/1 |
| 32 | 11 | 151/1 |
| 33 | 5 | 156/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 161/2 |
| 35 | 11 | 172/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 175/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 182/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 186/3 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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