TanzaniaversusUganda

28 Nov 2025 · T20

Asian Institute of Technology Ground, Bangkok · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Uganda won by 7 wickets

Tanzania19.5 overs54/10 Uganda12.3 overs55/3 Asian Institute of Technology Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Tanzania48%Uganda

Why

In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Tanzania won 5 and Uganda won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Tanzania (1,548 vs 1,531 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Tanzania started on 48%; Tanzania batted first.

Tanzania’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Tanzania's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Uganda: 47% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: C Aweko to S Mtae, S Mtae out. Uganda up from 47% to 54%.
12.3: I Nakisuuyi to NN Saidi, NN Saidi out. Uganda up from 70% to 76%.
19.5: K Amuge to S Kizito, S Kizito out. Uganda up from 89% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Tanzania54/10 Uganda55/3

Innings 1

Tanzania

54/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Tanzania batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Mtaecaught and bowled · Concy Aweko 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Concy Aweko	2	7	0	0	28.57
Fatuma Kibasurun out · Kevin Awino, Prosscovia Alako · S Akiteng 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kevin Awino, Prosscovia Alako	10	16	1	0	62.50
NJ Piusrun out · E Iloku, S Akiteng · S Akiteng 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · E Iloku, S Akiteng	5	23	0	0	21.74
HM Omarybowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi	7	7	1	0	100.00
NN Saidibowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi	9	15	0	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
K Amuge0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	0	9	1	3.18	2	0
Concy Aweko2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	3	1	0.75	0	0
Malisa Ariokot0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	0	4.67	1	0
S Akiteng0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	13	1	3.25	0	1
Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	2	3.00	2	0
Janet Mbabazi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	1	1	0.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	2	8/1
3	3	11/1
4	0	11/1
5	2	13/1
6	4	17/1
7	2	19/1
8	2	21/3
9	3	24/3
10	10	34/3
11	6	40/4
12	1	41/4
13	2	43/5
14	1	44/6
15	2	46/6
16	6	52/8
17	1	53/9
18	0	53/9
19	0	53/9
20	1	54/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.