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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
14 Jun 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 49%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Connollybowled · Mustafizur Rahman 13 fours · 6 sixes | bowled · b Mustafizur Rahman | 149 | 134 | 13 | 6 | 111.19 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · Shariful Islam4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · b Shariful Islam | 21 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 175.00 |
 Matt Renshawbowled · Shariful Islam0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shariful Islam | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Alex Careycaught · Soumya Sarkar · Taskin Ahmed1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Taskin Ahmed | 8 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 84% during the match (Australia: 17% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 16 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Nurul Hasan · Shariful Islam1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Shariful Islam | 29 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 64.44 |
|---|
 Cameron Greencaught and bowled · Mahedi Hasan1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mahedi Hasan | 27 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 77.14 |
|---|
 Oliver Peakecaught · Rishad Hossain · Shariful Islam2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rishad Hossain · b Shariful Islam | 27 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 84.38 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettcaught · Nurul Hasan · Shariful Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Shariful Islam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ben Dwarshuiscaught · Mahedi Hasan · Shariful Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahedi Hasan · b Shariful Islam | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Adam Zampanot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Riley Meredithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.3 | 1 | 59 | 1 | 7.87 | 0 | 1 |
 Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 6.22 | 1 | 0 |
 Shariful Islam1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 48 | 6 | 4.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Mahedi Hasan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanvir Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 |
 Mosaddek Hossain Saikat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-40 (Josh Inglis, 4.2) · 2-40 (Matt Renshaw, 4.4) · 3-70 (Alex Carey, 11.1) · 4-134 (Marnus Labuschagne, 24.0) · 5-202 (Cameron Green, 35.5) · 6-266 (Oliver Peake, 45.2) · 7-266 (Xavier Bartlett, 45.3) · 8-270 (Ben Dwarshuis, 47.3) · 9-271 (Cooper Connolly, 48.3)
Recorded target: 275 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 14 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 41/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 44/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 52/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 52/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 63/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 70/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 71/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 78/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 81/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 87/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 94/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 98/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 100/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 110/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 114/3 |
| 22 | 9 | 123/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 130/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 134/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 136/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 145/4 |
| 27 | 9 | 154/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 160/4 |
| 29 | 11 | 171/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 178/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 183/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 185/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 191/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 193/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 200/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 202/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 203/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 210/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 217/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 220/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 223/5 |
| 42 | 10 | 233/5 |
| 43 | 7 | 240/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 245/5 |
| 45 | 21 | 266/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 267/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 270/7 |
| 48 | 0 | 270/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 272/9 |
| 50 | 5 | 277/9 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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