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Photo: Amuzujoe
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African Games · 2023/24 · Men
17 Mar 2024 · T20
Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 65%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Ghana: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Josephcaught · Rexford Bakum · Godfred Bakiweyem 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rexford Bakum · b Godfred Bakiweyem | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
| Heinrigh Pietersehit wicket · Rexford Bakum 4 fours · 3 sixes | hit wicket · b Rexford Bakum | 62 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 182.35 |
| George Van Heerdennot out 8 fours · 7 sixes | not out | 107* | 57 | 8 | 7 | 187.72 |
| L Bothanot out 5 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 46* | 25 | 5 | 3 | 184.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD |
|---|
| NB |
|---|
| Kofi Bagabena0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godfred Bakiweyem0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 11.50 | 0 | 2 |
| Obed Agbomadzie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Syed Aqeel Israr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Aboagye0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 16.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Rexford Bakum0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 17.33 | 2 | 0 |
1-11 (M Joseph, 1.1) · 2-117 (Heinrigh Pieterse, 12.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 24/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 34/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 39/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 46/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 57/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 63/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 67/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 73/1 |
| 10 | 13 | 86/1 |
| 11 | 12 | 98/1 |
| 12 | 11 | 109/1 |
| 13 | 11 | 120/2 |
| 14 | 21 | 141/2 |
| 15 | 16 | 157/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 166/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 175/2 |
| 18 | 26 | 201/2 |
| 19 | 16 | 217/2 |
| 20 | 20 | 237/2 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.