South AfricaversusGhana

South Africa more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Ghana (1,513 vs 1,363 on our results rating)
• Ghana are playing at home in Ghana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 65%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Ghana: 0% to 38%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.1: KS Bagabena to M Joseph, four by M Joseph. South Africa up from 66% to 70%.
2. 1.1: G Bakiweyem to M Joseph, M Joseph out. Ghana up from 27% to 37%.
3. 1.5: G Bakiweyem to G Van Heerden, four by G Van Heerden. South Africa up from 65% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.