IndiaversusSouth Africa

8 Nov 2024 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 61 runs

India20.0 overs202/8 South Africa17.5 overs141/10 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

82%India18%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,834 vs 1,566 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 81%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

India's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 21%).

Biggest swings

3.1: G Coetzee to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. South Africa up from 14% to 20%.
2nd inns 0.4: Arshdeep Singh to AK Markram, AK Markram out. India up from 90% to 94%.
2nd inns 3.3: Avesh Khan to T Stubbs, T Stubbs out. India up from 91% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India202/8 South Africa141/10

Innings 2

South Africa

141/1017.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aiden Markramcaught · Sanju Samson · Arshdeep Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sanju Samson · b Arshdeep Singh	8	4	2	0	200.00
Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Tilak Varma · Varun Chakravarthy 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tilak Varma · b Varun Chakravarthy	21	11	3	1	190.91
Tristan Stubbscaught · Suryakumar Yadav · Avesh Khan 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Suryakumar Yadav · b Avesh Khan	11	11	0	1	100.00
Heinrich Klaasencaught · Axar Patel · Varun Chakravarthy 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Axar Patel · b Varun Chakravarthy	25	22	2	1	113.64

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	3
Avesh Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	28	2	9.88	0
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	2
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	3	6.25	1
Ravi Bishnoi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	3	7.00	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/1
2	9	19/1
3	9	28/1
4	13	41/2
5	3	44/2
6	5	49/3
7	9	58/3
8	10	68/3
9	8	76/3
10	2	78/3
11	1	79/3
12	8	87/5
13	6	93/7
14	8	101/7
15	13	114/8
16	15	129/8
17	6	135/9
18	6	141/10

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