South AfricaversusAustralia

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,720 vs 1,593 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 7 and South Africa won 3
• Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 20%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 3% to 60% during the match (Australia: 40% to 97%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 13.5: K Rabada to AM Hardie, AM Hardie out. South Africa up from 29% to 55%.
2. 2nd inns 19.2: L Ngidi to GJ Maxwell, four by GJ Maxwell. Australia up from 48% to 80%.
3. 2nd inns 19.5: L Ngidi to GJ Maxwell, four by GJ Maxwell. Australia up from 55% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.