DurhamversusHampshire

24 May 2026 · T20

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durham won by 32 runs

Durham20.0 overs178/5 Hampshire20.0 overs146/8 Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durham started on 50%; Durham batted first.

Durham’s chance of winning (%) · Hampshire is the rest

Durham's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Hampshire: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

5.3: H Hardwick to MK Villiers, MK Villiers out. Hampshire up from 25% to 32%.
2nd inns 4.2: MK Villiers to GL Adams, GL Adams out. Durham up from 80% to 87%.
2nd inns 11.3: S Turner to ND Dattani, ND Dattani out. Durham up from 88% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.