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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
10 Jun 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 64%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C de Lange (2)caught · Nicholas Kirton · Matthew Spoors 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Matthew Spoors | 35 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 58.33 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Ali Nadeem · Zahid Shirzad 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Nadeem · b Zahid Shirzad | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 31.25 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Ali Nadeem · Akhil Kumar2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Nadeem · b Akhil Kumar | 25 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Bas de Leedecaught · Ali Nadeem · Saad Bin Zafar1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Nadeem · b Saad Bin Zafar | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 36% to 91% during the match (Canada: 10% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Ali Nadeem · b Kaleem Sana |
| 58 |
| 76 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 76.32 |
| Noah Croescaught · Matthew Spoors · Saad Bin Zafar 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Spoors · b Saad Bin Zafar | 26 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 61.90 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwecaught · Matthew Spoors · Akhil Kumar2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Matthew Spoors · b Akhil Kumar | 34 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 94.44 |
|---|
| Logan van Beekcaught · Ali Nadeem · Zahid Shirzad 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Nadeem · b Zahid Shirzad | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleincaught · Ali Nadeem · Matthew Spoors 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Nadeem · b Matthew Spoors | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttcaught · Saad Bin Zafar · Matthew Spoors 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Bin Zafar · b Matthew Spoors | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Roynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 4.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Zahid Shirzad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 4.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 5.13 | 0 | 1 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Spoors0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-18 (Max O'Dowd, 5.3) · 2-59 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 16.4) · 3-69 (C de Lange (2), 19.2) · 4-75 (Bas de Leede, 20.3) · 5-128 (Noah Croes, 32.5) · 6-202 (Roelof van der Merwe, 44.4) · 7-206 (Scott Edwards, 45.4) · 8-211 (Logan van Beek, 46.4) · 9-213 (Kyle Klein, 47.2) · 10-214 (Aryan Dutt, 48.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 31/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 38/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 44/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 53/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 59/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 64/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 68/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 74/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 76/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 81/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 86/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 92/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 99/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 105/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 106/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 116/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 120/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 122/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 126/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 129/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 136/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 138/5 |
| 36 | 8 | 146/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 149/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 155/5 |
| 39 | 1 | 156/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 160/5 |
| 41 | 9 | 169/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 174/5 |
| 43 | 5 | 179/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 186/5 |
| 45 | 18 | 204/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 209/7 |
| 47 | 2 | 211/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 214/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
