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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
10 Jun 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 64%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samracaught · Bas de Leede · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Bas de Leede · b Aryan Dutt | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Ali Nadeemcaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Kyle Klein 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Kyle Klein | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Logan van Beek · Kyle Klein 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Logan van Beek · b Kyle Klein | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
| Matthew Spoorscaught · C de Lange (2) · Logan van Beek 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C de Lange (2) · b Logan van Beek | 10 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 43.48 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · Scott Edwards · Roelof van der Merwe 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Scott Edwards · b Roelof van der Merwe | 52 | 90 | 3 | 2 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 36% to 91% during the match (Canada: 10% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 57.78 |
| Shreyas Movvanot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 83* | 108 | 5 | 0 | 76.85 |
|---|
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · A Roy · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Roy · b Aryan Dutt | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Akhil Kumarrun out · Bas de Leede · Roelof van der Merwe 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Bas de Leede | 25 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 78.13 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught and bowled · Aryan Dutt0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Aryan Dutt | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sananot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 9 | 1 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 53 | 2 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan van Beek2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
| A Roy1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 4.56 | 0 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Ali Nadeem, 1.2) · 2-8 (Pargat Singh, 2.0) · 3-22 (YS Samra, 4.3) · 4-33 (Matthew Spoors, 10.5) · 5-119 (Harsh Thaker, 31.4) · 6-126 (Nicholas Kirton, 32.5) · 7-181 (Akhil Kumar, 43.5) · 8-189 (Saad Bin Zafar, 46.1)
Recorded target: 215 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 8 | 18/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 22/3 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 28/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 29/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 33/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 33/3 |
| 11 | 0 | 33/4 |
| 12 | 2 | 35/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 40/4 |
| 14 | 2 | 42/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 47/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 49/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 52/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 53/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 57/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 59/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 66/4 |
| 22 | 7 | 73/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 77/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 80/4 |
| 25 | 10 | 90/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 91/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 94/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 101/4 |
| 29 | 9 | 110/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 113/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 117/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 119/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 126/6 |
| 34 | 5 | 131/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 137/6 |
| 36 | 5 | 142/6 |
| 37 | 8 | 150/6 |
| 38 | 4 | 154/6 |
| 39 | 0 | 154/6 |
| 40 | 9 | 163/6 |
| 41 | 1 | 164/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 169/6 |
| 43 | 10 | 179/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 182/7 |
| 45 | 3 | 185/7 |
| 46 | 4 | 189/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 198/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 204/8 |
| 49 | 5 | 209/8 |
| 50 | 9 | 218/8 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
