Sri LankaversusBangladesh

6 Mar 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 8 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs165/5 Bangladesh18.1 overs170/2 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Sri Lanka48%Bangladesh

Why

Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,564 vs 1,538 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 49%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Bangladesh: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: Taskin Ahmed to WIA Fernando, WIA Fernando out. Bangladesh up from 57% to 67%.
2nd inns 6.5: M Pathirana to Soumya Sarkar, Soumya Sarkar out. Sri Lanka up from 16% to 25%.
2nd inns 8.6: M Pathirana to Liton Das, Liton Das out. Sri Lanka up from 18% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka165/5 Bangladesh170/2

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

165/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Avishka Fernandocaught and bowled · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Taskin Ahmed	0	7	0	0	0.00
Kusal Mendiscaught · Litton Das · Soumya Sarkar 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Soumya Sarkar	36	22	2	3	163.64
Kamindu Mendisrun out · Mahedi Hasan, Rishad Hossain · Rishad Hossain 3 fours · 2 sixes	run out · Mahedi Hasan, Rishad Hossain	37	27	3	2	137.04
Sadeera Samarawickramacaught and bowled · Mustafizur Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Mustafizur Rahman	7	11	0	0	63.64
Charith Asalankabowled · Mahedi Hasan 1 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Mahedi Hasan	28	14	1	3	200.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shariful Islam1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	0	5.00	2
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	38	1	9.50	0
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	39	1	9.75	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	42	1	10.50	1
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	21	0	7.00	1
Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	5	1	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	5	5/1
3	3	8/1
4	17	25/1
5	9	34/1
6	15	49/1
7	4	53/1
8	11	64/1
9	5	69/2
10	9	78/3
11	3	81/3
12	11	92/3
13	6	98/4
14	16	114/5
15	8	122/5
16	9	131/5
17	6	137/5
18	12	149/5
19	7	156/5
20	9	165/5

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