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India tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
22 Nov 2024 · Test
Perth Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan McSweeneylbw · Jasprit Bumrah 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jasprit Bumrah | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Usman Khawajacaught · Rishabh Pant · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Mohammed Siraj | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
 Pat Cumminscaught · Virat Kohli · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Mohammed Siraj | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 |
| lbw · b Jasprit Bumrah |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
 Steve Smithcaught · Rishabh Pant · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Mohammed Siraj | 17 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 28.33 |
|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Rishabh Pant · Jasprit Bumrah8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Jasprit Bumrah | 89 | 101 | 8 | 0 | 88.12 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshbowled · Nitish Kumar Reddy3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Nitish Kumar Reddy | 47 | 67 | 3 | 2 | 70.15 |
|---|
 Alex Careybowled · Harshit Rana2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harshit Rana | 36 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 62.07 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Dhruv Jurel · Washington Sundar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhruv Jurel · b Washington Sundar | 12 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 34.29 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonbowled · Washington Sundar0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Washington Sundar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 11 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah1 maidens · 5 wides · 5 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 3.50 | 5 | 5 |
 Mohammed Siraj2 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 14.0 | 2 | 51 | 3 | 3.64 | 1 | 1 |
| Harshit Rana1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 13.4 | 1 | 69 | 1 | 5.05 | 0 | 2 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 3 |
1-0 (Nathan McSweeney, 0.4) · 2-9 (Pat Cummins, 3.1) · 3-12 (Marnus Labuschagne, 4.2) · 4-17 (Usman Khawaja, 5.3) · 5-79 (Steve Smith, 24.4) · 6-161 (Travis Head, 38.5) · 7-182 (Mitchell Marsh, 43.4) · 8-227 (Mitchell Starc, 53.4) · 9-227 (Nathan Lyon, 54.0) · 10-238 (Alex Carey, 58.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 12/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 17/3 |
| 6 | 0 | 17/4 |
| 7 | 2 | 19/4 |
| 8 | 0 | 19/4 |
| 9 | 3 | 22/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 23/4 |
| 11 | 0 | 23/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 28/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 33/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 38/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 45/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 46/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 48/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 50/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 52/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 59/4 |
| 21 | 11 | 70/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 72/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 77/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 78/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 79/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 81/5 |
| 27 | 7 | 88/5 |
| 28 | 5 | 93/5 |
| 29 | 8 | 101/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 104/5 |
| 31 | 9 | 113/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 118/5 |
| 33 | 8 | 126/5 |
| 34 | 9 | 135/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 139/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 142/5 |
| 37 | 9 | 151/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 154/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 161/6 |
| 40 | 5 | 166/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 168/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 172/6 |
| 43 | 7 | 179/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 182/7 |
| 45 | 1 | 183/7 |
| 46 | 6 | 189/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 197/7 |
| 48 | 8 | 205/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 210/7 |
| 50 | 1 | 211/7 |
| 51 | 5 | 216/7 |
| 52 | 2 | 218/7 |
| 53 | 6 | 224/7 |
| 54 | 3 | 227/9 |
| 55 | 2 | 229/9 |
| 56 | 4 | 233/9 |
| 57 | 2 | 235/9 |
| 58 | 1 | 236/9 |
| 59 | 2 | 238/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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