**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

BangladeshversusIndonesia

31 Aug 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 71 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs129/8 Indonesia17.3 overs58/10 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Bangladesh48%Indonesia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Indonesia (1,574 vs 1,561 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 49%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Indonesia is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Indonesia: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: Marufa Akter to RD Pangestuti, RD Pangestuti out. Bangladesh up from 43% to 54%.
2nd inns 4.3: Marufa Akter to M Corazon, M Corazon out. Bangladesh up from 53% to 65%.
2nd inns 8.2: Fahima Khatun to NPAN Sakarini, NPAN Sakarini out. Bangladesh up from 71% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh129/8 Indonesia58/10

Innings 2

Indonesia

58/1017.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Indonesia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
M Corazonlbw · Marufa Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Marufa Akter	12	13	1	0	92.31
RD Pangestuticaught · Ritu Moni · Marufa Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ritu Moni · b Marufa Akter	9	10	1	0	90.00
NLKWR Dewilbw · Sanjida Akter Meghla 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sanjida Akter Meghla	9	13	1	0	69.23
NPAN Sakarinilbw · Fahima Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Fahima Khatun	2	15	0	0	13.33
NKF Rada Ranilbw · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nahida Akter	4	10	0	0	40.00
D Wulandarirun out · Ritu Moni · Shorna Akter0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marufa Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	2	2.00	0
Sanjida Akter Meghla1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	11	1	3.67	0
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	10	0	4.00	0
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	3	3.75	1
Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	1	3.00	0
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	3	0	1.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	9	15/0
3	4	19/1
4	7	26/1
5	0	26/2
6	7	33/2
7	0	33/2
8	3	36/2
9	1	37/3
10	2	39/4
11	3	42/4
12	2	44/5
13	5	49/5
14	4	53/8
15	1	54/9
16	2	56/9
17	2	58/9
18	0	58/10

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