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Indonesia Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2025/26 · Men
14 Nov 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Myanmar more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Myanmar started on 77%; Myanmar batted first.
Myanmar's chances ranged from 78% to 100% during the match (Timor-Leste: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahat Kazicaught · Htet Lin Aung · Nyein Cham Soe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Htet Lin Aung · b Nyein Cham Soe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Raihan Hossainrun out · Thuya Aung · Pyae Phyo Wai 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Thuya Aung | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
| Yahya Suhailnot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 53* | 61 | 5 | 1 | 86.89 |
| D Mendoncarun out · Nyein Cham Soe, Htun Myat Hei · Pyae Phyo Wai 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nyein Cham Soe, Htun Myat Hei | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elias Tilmanbowled · Thuya Aung 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Thuya Aung | 8 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 25.81 |
| lbw · b Thuya Aung |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| GF Cardosbowled · Thuya Aung 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Thuya Aung | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Arif Hosenrun out · Nyein Cham Soe, Htun Myat Hei · Htet Lin Aung 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nyein Cham Soe, Htun Myat Hei | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nazmul Hudanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyein Cham Soe1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Pyae Phyo Wai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ko Ko Lin Thu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Thuya Aung1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaung Htet Kyaw0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 5 | 0 |
| PPS Win0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Htet Lin Aung0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Rahat Kazi, 0.2) · 2-11 (Raihan Hossain, 3.3) · 3-11 (D Mendonca, 3.5) · 4-45 (Elias Tilman, 13.4) · 5-56 (Suhail Sattar, 15.1) · 6-56 (GF Cardos, 15.5) · 7-67 (Arif Hosen, 17.4)
Recorded target: 181 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 13/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 18/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 25/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 30/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 32/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 37/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 39/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 42/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 44/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 45/4 |
| 15 | 11 | 56/4 |
| 16 | 0 | 56/6 |
| 17 | 9 | 65/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 69/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 79/7 |
| 20 | 14 | 93/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.