**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusPaarl Royals

27 Jan 2025 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 6 wickets

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs143/7 Paarl Royals19.5 overs147/4 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 37%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 1% to 38% during the match (Paarl Royals: 62% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.3: BC Fortuin to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Paarl Royals up from 64% to 75%.
2nd inns 0.1: P Subrayen to JE Root, JE Root out. Durban's Super Giants up from 24% to 36%.
2nd inns 19.5: PWA Mulder to Dayyaan Galiem, six by Dayyaan Galiem. Paarl Royals up from 81% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.