BotswanaversusRwanda

23 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Rwanda won by 7 wickets

Botswana20.0 overs69/9 Rwanda14.2 overs72/3 Botswana Cricket Association Oval 1, Gaborone ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Rwanda more likely to win

46%Botswana54%Rwanda

Why

Botswana are playing at home in Botswana
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Rwanda won 1 and Botswana won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Rwanda rate stronger than Botswana (1,402 vs 1,375 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Botswana started on 45%; Botswana batted first.

Botswana’s chance of winning (%) · Rwanda is the rest

Botswana's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Rwanda: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: Rosine Irera to T Shadrack, T Shadrack out. Rwanda up from 56% to 63%.
3.1: MD Bimenyimana to O Kgeresi, O Kgeresi out. Rwanda up from 63% to 71%.
19.6: Rosine Irera to G Matome, K Inakale out. Rwanda up from 87% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Botswana69/9 Rwanda72/3

Innings 1

Botswana

69/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Botswana batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
T Shadracklbw · Rosine Irera 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Rosine Irera	3	11	0	0	27.27
O Kgeresilbw · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Marie Bimenyimana	3	7	0	0	42.86
L Mophakedibowled · R Shimwamana 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Shimwamana	6	13	0	0	46.15
Pako Mapotsanebowled · Marie Bimenyimana 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Marie Bimenyimana	22	37	1	0	59.46
G Matomenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	16*	28	0	0	57.14
A Mokgotlhebowled · R Shimwamana0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Rosine Irera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	1	2.25	1	0
Marie Bimenyimana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	3	2.75	1	0
Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	2	2.25	1	0
J Nyirankundineza0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	16	0	8.00	3	0
R Shimwamana0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	9	2	2.25	1	1
MJ Tumukunde0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	0	6.50	5	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/0
3	2	7/1
4	4	11/2
5	2	13/2
6	5	18/2
7	1	19/2
8	11	30/2
9	2	32/3
10	8	40/3
11	3	43/3
12	5	48/3
13	3	51/3
14	4	55/4
15	1	56/5
16	2	58/5
17	3	61/5
18	0	61/6
19	4	65/8
20	4	69/9

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