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Sri Lanka Women tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Women
20 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 47%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ritu Moni | 27 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 65.85 |
| Imesha Dulanicaught · Juairiya Ferdous · Sultana Khatun 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Juairiya Ferdous · b Sultana Khatun | 52 | 77 | 6 | 0 | 67.53 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ritu Moni | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Hansima Karunaratnecaught · Rabeya Khan · Sobhana Mostary 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rabeya Khan · b Sobhana Mostary | 54 | 71 | 6 | 0 | 76.06 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (Bangladesh: 27% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sharmin Sultana · b Ritu Moni |
| 30 |
| 38 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 78.95 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shorna Akter · b Marufa Akter | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Kaushini Nuthyanganacaught · Sobhana Mostary · Rabeya Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sobhana Mostary · b Rabeya Khan | 18 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 78.26 |
|---|
| Dewmi Vihangalbw · Nahida Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahida Akter | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
| Malki Madaranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Inoka Ranaweeracaught · Juairiya Ferdous · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Juairiya Ferdous · b Nahida Akter | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| NM Meepagenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 | |
| 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sultana Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 1 |
| Rabeya Khan3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 3.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-68 (Hasini Perera, 14.0) · 2-72 (Harshitha Madavi, 15.2) · 3-124 (Imesha Dulani, 29.0) · 4-160 (Hansima Karunaratne, 37.1) · 5-171 (Nilakshi de Silva, 40.2) · 6-175 (Kavisha Dilhari, 41.1) · 7-191 (Dewmi Vihanga, 45.5) · 8-202 (Kaushini Nuthyangana, 48.2) · 9-205 (Inoka Ranaweera, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 22/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 37/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 37/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 44/0 |
| 11 | 9 | 53/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 56/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 59/0 |
| 14 | 9 | 68/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 72/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 75/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 77/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 84/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 90/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 97/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 102/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 104/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 106/2 |
| 27 | 6 | 112/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 113/2 |
| 29 | 11 | 124/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 126/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 131/3 |
| 32 | 8 | 139/3 |
| 33 | 9 | 148/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 151/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 153/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 156/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 160/3 |
| 38 | 2 | 162/4 |
| 39 | 1 | 163/4 |
| 40 | 8 | 171/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 175/5 |
| 42 | 2 | 177/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 178/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 181/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 189/6 |
| 46 | 2 | 191/7 |
| 47 | 1 | 192/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 198/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 203/8 |
| 50 | 2 | 205/9 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.