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Sri Lanka Women tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Women
20 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 47%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juairiya Ferdouscaught · Nilakshi de Silva · NM Meepage 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b NM Meepage | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Sharmin Sultanabowled · Malki Madara 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Malki Madara | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
13 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b Inoka Ranaweera | 86 | 127 | 13 | 0 | 67.72 |
2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dewmi Vihanga | 13 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 44.83 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (Bangladesh: 27% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| retired hurt |
| 41* |
| 56 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 73.21 |
| Shorna Aktercaught · Harshitha Madavi · Dewmi Vihanga 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Dewmi Vihanga | 35 | 48 | 3 | 1 | 72.92 |
|---|
| Ritu Monicaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Dewmi Vihanga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Dewmi Vihanga | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khancaught · Kavisha Dilhari · Malki Madara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b Malki Madara | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Sultana Khatunnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 21 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara1 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 3.89 | 8 | 0 |
| NM Meepage3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Dewmi Vihanga1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 3.40 | 2 | 0 |
| 5.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 8.80 | 7 | 0 | |
| 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
1-1 (Sharmin Sultana, 0.5) · 2-5 (Juairiya Ferdous, 1.3) · 3-34 (Nigar Sultana, 9.0) · 4-199 (Sharmin Akhter, 44.3) · 5-199 (Shorna Akter, 45.1) · 6-200 (Ritu Moni, 46.0) · 7-200 (Rabeya Khan, 46.1)
Recorded target: 206 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 12/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 16/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 25/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 34/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 34/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 41/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 47/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 50/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 60/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 63/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 67/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 69/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 20 | 16 | 91/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 97/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 101/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 103/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 107/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 112/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 119/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 121/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 123/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 129/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 131/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 135/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 138/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 140/3 |
| 34 | 0 | 140/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 142/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 149/3 |
| 37 | 10 | 159/3 |
| 38 | 6 | 165/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 171/3 |
| 40 | 7 | 178/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 182/3 |
| 42 | 3 | 185/3 |
| 43 | 7 | 192/3 |
| 44 | 7 | 199/3 |
| 45 | 0 | 199/4 |
| 46 | 1 | 200/6 |
| 47 | 1 | 201/7 |
| 48 | 3 | 204/7 |
| 49 | 2 | 206/7 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.