EnglandversusNew Zealand

6 Jul 2024 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 59 runs

England20.0 overs197/3 New Zealand20.0 overs138/9 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

84%England16%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,737 vs 1,544 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and New Zealand won 3
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 83%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

England's chances ranged from 84% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 16%).

Biggest swings

0.1: FC Jonas to DN Wyatt, four by DN Wyatt. England up from 84% to 86%.
0.4: FC Jonas to ME Bouchier, four by ME Bouchier. England up from 86% to 87%.
7.4: LMM Tahuhu to ME Bouchier, ME Bouchier out. New Zealand up from 7% to 10%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England197/3 New Zealand138/9

Innings 2

New Zealand

138/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suzie Batesbowled · Sarah Glenn 5 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Sarah Glenn	43	33	5	1	130.30
Georgia Plimmerrun out · Nat Sciver-Brunt · Freya Kemp 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Nat Sciver-Brunt	1	4	0	0	25.00
Amelia Kerrcaught · Maia Bouchier · Charlie Dean 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Maia Bouchier · b Charlie Dean	18	16	1	0	112.50
Sophie Devinecaught · Maia Bouchier · Sarah Glenn 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Maia Bouchier · b Sarah Glenn	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0
Freya Kemp0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	4
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	2	9.33	0
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	1	9.00	0
Sarah Glenn0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	3	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	7	12/1
3	8	20/1
4	10	30/1
5	12	42/1
6	3	45/1
7	9	54/1
8	4	58/1
9	5	63/2
10	1	64/5
11	4	68/6
12	3	71/6
13	14	85/6
14	8	93/6
15	7	100/6
16	6	106/6
17	11	117/7
18	7	124/7
19	8	132/8
20	6	138/9

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