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India Women tour of England · 2025 · Women
16 Jul 2025 · ODI
The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 60%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 36 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 70.59 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Bell5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Bell | 28 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Harleen Deolrun out · Alice Davidson-Richards · Charlie Dean 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Alice Davidson-Richards | 27 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 61.36 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurlbw · Charlie Dean0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charlie Dean | 17 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 62.96 |
 |
England's chances ranged from 1% to 72% during the match (India: 28% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Filer |
| 48 |
| 54 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 88.89 |
 Deepti Sharmanot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 62* | 64 | 3 | 1 | 96.88 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshstumped · Amy Jones · Charlie Dean1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Amy Jones · b Charlie Dean | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Amanjot Kaurnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 14 | 3 | 0 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kate Cross0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 6.43 | 3 | 0 |
 Lauren Bell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.71 | 2 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.78 | 5 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 2 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Emma Lamb0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-48 (Smriti Mandhana, 8.0) · 2-94 (Pratika Rawal, 18.1) · 3-102 (Harleen Deol, 21.4) · 4-124 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 27.1) · 5-214 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 41.3) · 6-229 (Richa Ghosh, 44.3)
Recorded target: 259 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 48/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 51/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 52/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 56/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 59/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 64/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 70/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 74/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 84/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 90/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 94/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 95/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 101/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 101/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 103/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 104/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 108/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 113/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 116/3 |
| 27 | 8 | 124/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 126/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 128/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 134/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 141/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 146/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 152/4 |
| 34 | 11 | 163/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 168/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 175/4 |
| 37 | 9 | 184/4 |
| 38 | 11 | 195/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 200/4 |
| 40 | 8 | 208/4 |
| 41 | 3 | 211/4 |
| 42 | 5 | 216/5 |
| 43 | 7 | 223/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 227/5 |
| 45 | 5 | 232/6 |
| 46 | 10 | 242/6 |
| 47 | 8 | 250/6 |
| 48 | 4 | 254/6 |
| 49 | 8 | 262/6 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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