Trinbago Knight RidersversusSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots

17 Aug 2025 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Trinbago Knight Riders won by 12 runs

Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs231/5 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs219/7 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Trinbago Knight Riders started on 56%; Trinbago Knight Riders batted first.

Trinbago Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · St Kitts and Nevis Patriots is the rest

Trinbago Knight Riders's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (St Kitts and Nevis Patriots: 0% to 43%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Naseem Shah to C Munro, six by C Munro. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 64% to 69%.
2nd inns 7.3: Usman Tariq to KR Mayers, KR Mayers out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 73% to 83%.
2nd inns 8.1: AJ Hosein to ADS Fletcher, ADS Fletcher out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 85% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Trinbago Knight Riders231/5 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots219/7

Innings 1