Sri LankaversusBangladesh

30 Apr 2026 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 21 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs154/4 Bangladesh20.0 overs133/5 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Sri Lanka47%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,599 vs 1,557 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 52%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.6: M Ayodhya to Juairiya Ferdous, four by Juairiya Ferdous. Bangladesh up from 37% to 48%.
2nd inns 6.2: WK Dilhari to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Sri Lanka up from 53% to 65%.
2nd inns 9.5: AC Jayangani to Sharmin Akhter, Juairiya Ferdous out. Sri Lanka up from 59% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka154/4 Bangladesh133/5

Innings 2

Bangladesh

133/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Hansima Karunaratne · Kavisha Dilhari 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hansima Karunaratne · b Kavisha Dilhari	23	23	4	0	100.00
Juairiya Ferdousrun out · Imesha Dulani, Kaushini Nuthyangana · Chamari Atapattu 3 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Imesha Dulani, Kaushini Nuthyangana	29	23	3	1	126.09
Sharmin Akhternot out 4 fours · 0 sixes	not out	44*	47	4	0	93.62
Nigar Sultanarun out · Imesha Dulani · Malki Madara 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Imesha Dulani	7	7	0	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Malki Madara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	0
M Ayodhya0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	0	11.25	6
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	0	3.50	1
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	2	3.75	0
Nilakshi de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	11	21/0
3	3	24/0
4	2	26/0
5	2	28/0
6	18	46/0
7	1	47/1
8	14	61/1
9	4	65/1
10	2	67/2
11	8	75/2
12	4	79/2
13	4	83/3
14	2	85/4
15	7	92/4
16	7	99/4
17	8	107/4
18	4	111/5
19	13	124/5
20	9	133/5

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