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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
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Bangladesh tour of Sri Lanka · 2025 · Men
5 Jul 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 20%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parvez Hossain Emonbowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 6 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 67 | 69 | 6 | 3 | 97.10 |
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Kusal Mendis · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Mahesh Theekshana · Charith Asalanka2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahesh Theekshana · b Charith Asalanka | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
 Tawhid Hridoyrun out · Nishan Madushka, Asitha Fernando · Asitha Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nishan Madushka, Asitha Fernando | 51 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 73.91 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 16% to 99% during the match (Sri Lanka: 1% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Pathum Nissanka · Dushmantha Chameera1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Dushmantha Chameera |
| 9 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 90.00 |
 Shamim Hossaincaught · Janith Liyanage · Asitha Fernando2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Asitha Fernando | 22 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95.65 |
|---|
 Jaker Alilbw · Asitha Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 24 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Tanzim Hasan Sakibnot out2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 33* | 21 | 2 | 2 | 157.14 |
|---|
 Hasan Mahmudcaught · Nishan Madushka · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nishan Madushka · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tanvir Islamlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmanlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 35 | 4 | 3.89 | 1 | 1 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 5.29 | 3 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 60 | 3 | 6.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-10 (Tanzid Hasan, 2.3) · 2-73 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 11.3) · 3-110 (Parvez Hossain Emon, 19.4) · 4-126 (Mehedi Hasan, 22.4) · 5-159 (Shamim Hossain, 28.5) · 6-204 (Jaker Ali, 39.0) · 7-212 (Tawhid Hridoy, 40.2) · 8-213 (Hasan Mahmud, 40.5) · 9-218 (Tanvir Islam, 41.5) · 10-248 (Mustafizur Rahman, 45.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 27/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 30/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 36/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 65/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 73/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 74/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 76/2 |
| 14 | 13 | 89/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 96/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 101/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 104/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 107/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 110/2 |
| 20 | 0 | 110/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 115/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 122/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 127/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 134/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 137/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 146/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 148/4 |
| 28 | 10 | 158/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 159/5 |
| 30 | 1 | 160/5 |
| 31 | 1 | 161/5 |
| 32 | 8 | 169/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 174/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 176/5 |
| 35 | 8 | 184/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 188/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 192/5 |
| 38 | 8 | 200/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 204/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 210/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 213/8 |
| 42 | 5 | 218/9 |
| 43 | 1 | 219/9 |
| 44 | 11 | 230/9 |
| 45 | 5 | 235/9 |
| 46 | 13 | 248/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamim Hossain: DelwarHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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